In Bitcoin’s 13 years of existence, the crypto king has seen its price grow from a few pennies to almost breaking the $70K ceiling at its peak. Even though the world’s first cryptocurrency is only worth about $16,800 today, historical data suggests Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could very well surpass its old all-time high and even hit the $100K milestone.
Bitcoin’s Halving Event
According to data, crypto analysts anticipate the price to reach $100K in around March of 2024, which is close to the Bitcoin Halving event. Bitcoin’s next halving event is scheduled for block number 840K which happens to be during the spring of 2024. The block reward will supposedly be reduced from 6,25 per block to 3,125 after the next halving.
The uniqueness of Bitcoin lies in its code. The coding behind the largest cryptocurrency by market cap is designed to ensure that the rate of supply expansion slows down over time. And it’s these in-built halving events that have lent an impact on the price of Bitcoin previously.
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Because the source code is publicly available, simple calculations determine that the reward for a Bitcoin block is halved every 210,000 blocks, which is equivalent to around once in every four years.
When looking at historical information, we can see that the spot price of bitcoin has climbed by 1,263% between the 2016 and 2020 halvings. If the current trends continue as they are, the price of bitcoin will reach $120,263 on the 23rd of March in 2024.
Other Macro Indicators
Raoul Pal, a former executive of Goldman Sachs and a big Bitcoin proponent — in the most recent issue of his newsletter, reviewed the current situation of the macro market, expressing a cautiously optimistic outlook on its future.
According to Pal’s estimations, the Federal Reserve of the United States is moving away from its hawkish (QT) monetary policy and moving towards a more dovish one (QE).
Raoul Pal believes that there is a strong correlation between the spot price of Bitcoin and the M2 Monetary Aggregate (i.e. money supply). All high-beta assets, including Bitcoin, will most likely increase in value with the reintroduction of quantitative easing (QE).
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